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Beleggers zijn nerveus dat de lancering van de CME ETH-futures van deze week een herhaling zal zijn van de CME-lancering van Bitcoin in 2017, maar gegevens suggereren anders.

De hopeloze lancering van de futures in december 2017 van Bitcoin ( BTC ) bleef snel achter bij de verwachtingen van beleggers en hoewel de CME BTC-markt $ 2,5 miljard aan openstaande rente heeft overtroffen, heeft de eerste lancering het verhaal versterkt dat de lancering van CME ETH-futures deze week even bearish zal zijn in de korte termijn.

Voorafgaand aan de lancering van CME BTC-futures, had Bitcoin al 1.900% gewonnen voor het jaar, een rally waarvan sommige analisten beweren dat deze werd voortgestuwd door de verwachting van gereguleerde futures

Nu de CME ETH-futures zijn gelanceerd, houden beleggers nauwlettend in de gaten om te zien of Ether ( ETH ) met een vergelijkbare situatie te maken zal krijgen, aangezien het het afgelopen jaar al 600% heeft gewonnen.

Tot op heden is er geen manier om in te schatten hoe Bitcoin het zou hebben vergaan zonder het bestaan ​​van de CME- en CBOE-futures. Niettemin hebben handelaren nog steeds de neiging om de lancering van CME in verband te brengen met de 70% crash van de BTC-prijs die plaatsvond in de eerste 3 maanden na de lancering.

Het analyseren van een assortiment grondstoffen en FX-contractlanceringen in de afgelopen twee decennia zou een beter perspectief op de kwestie kunnen bieden, dus we zullen de gegevens van de historische index voor eerste handelsdata van CME bekijken om te zien of er een waarneembare prijstrend is die optreedt na CME-noteringen.

Toen de futures op ruwe palmolie in mei 2010 bij CME werden gelanceerd, hadden ze geen invloed op het aanhoudende prijsherstel, zoals de bovenstaande gegevens aangeven. Vergelijkbare contracten bestonden al bijna een decennium bij NYMEX, dus de bovenstaande gebeurtenis was misschien minder belangrijk omdat beide beurzen institutionele klanten afhandelen.

Meerdere factoren hadden ervoor kunnen zorgen dat de palmolieprijzen na de lancering van CME zijn gestegen, waaronder de 23% positieve prestatie van WTI-olie in de komende vijf maanden.

Zuid-Koreaanse won

Op een vergelijkbare toon wonnen de Zuid-Koreaanse futures die in september 2006 genoteerd waren, en in dit geval leek de lancering een onmiddellijke impact op de prijs te hebben.

Ondanks het ontbreken van een futures-contract, bestonden er al Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDF) voor de Zuid-Koreaanse won vóór de CME-notering. Deze NDF-contracten worden meestal over-the-counter (OTC) verhandeld en zijn zelden overdraagbaar tussen beleggers. Dit betekent dat het beursgenoteerde futures-contract een groter aantal instellingen had die zouden kunnen deelnemen.

Nogmaals, het is onmogelijk om in te schatten of deze lancering van het futurescontract een onmiddellijke impact op de prijs had. Het is mogelijk dat de devaluatie van de Zuid-Koreaan de trend van opkomende of Aziatische economieën volgde. Daarom lijkt het een hele klus om deze beweging vast te zetten aan de lancering van CME-futures.

Hoe verging het de commodities?

Zowel Ether als Bitcoin worden meestal als schaarse digitale grondstoffen beschouwd, dus het is logisch om het te vergelijken met andere eerdere CME-lanceringen.

Terugkomend op grondstoffen, diammoniumfosfaat (DAP), een veelgebruikte meststof, beleefde zijn debuut op CME-termijncontracten in juni 2004.

O veterano de Wall Street Max Keiser está prevendo uma grave crise de fornecimento de Bitcoin no horizonte que forçará as instituições a comprar BTC a níveis significativamente mais altos em um instante.

A marca de fogo Bitcoin diz que uma enorme lacuna

Em uma entrevista ao Take The Orange Pill, a marca de fogo Bitcoin diz que uma enorme lacuna no preço pode estar prevista para a BTC enquanto investidores institucionais vasculham os mercados para o fornecimento do escasso ativo.

„Nos últimos dois anos, estamos passando de um volume falso para um volume real e isso é como uma churrascaria através de um overhead ou um suprimento de volume para criar a descoberta do preço.

Muito em breve o que eu acho que vai acontecer é que o tipo Michael Saylor ou um tipo corporativo ou uma instituição virá com uma ordem de compra de 10 bilhões a 20 bilhões de dólares de Bitcoin e, de repente, dentro de alguns negócios, eles estarão descobrindo que não há oferta alguma e, de repente, o preço vai variar de 37.000 a 47.000 a 52.000 dólares. Isso pode acontecer em dez minutos, porque os mercados meio que embalaram as pessoas a sensação de que há oferta lá fora.

Uma vez que tudo isso tenha desaparecido

Está mexendo em toda essa oferta de merda e então, uma vez que tudo isso tenha desaparecido, as instituições vão ter um despertar rude porque não poderão obter nenhuma moeda a qualquer preço até que o preço seja muito mais alto. Portanto, acho que o próximo intervalo será uma brecha. De repente, deve ser uma brecha maior e então isso será uma grande história“.

Keiser também vê um futuro onde Bitcoin é amplamente adotado para escapar das questionáveis políticas monetárias dos bancos centrais.

„Como os bancos centrais continuam a sofrer erosão e o problema continua a piorar e não há novas soluções ou pensando apenas em continuar fazendo a mesma coisa quebrada, você vai ver Bitcoin galopar mais alto, o que não vai atrair mais capital e você vai ter apenas esta economia global bifurcada. Vai haver uma economia Bitcoin num mundo Bitcoin e uma vida Bitcoin e pessoas vivendo a vida Bitcoin e haverá todos os outros“.

Crypto expert: „Insolvency of major companies could crash bitcoin“

The Komodo manager considers such a scenario unlikely, but not impossible.

Bitcoin (BTC) is known for its price fluctuations. And the current record run was also preceded by a crash in March 2020 due to the Corona crisis, before the market-leading cryptocurrency was able to soar to new heights. However, this also suggests that it could possibly go down again just as quickly in the future.

Jason Brown, the director of business development at blockchain platform Bitcoin Superstar, has speculated for Cointelegraph on what could trigger a similar downturn to that seen at the start of the Corona crisis.

„I think such a scenario is unlikely, given the increased adoption by institutional investors,“ as he first states to that effect. He added: „On the other hand, we wouldn’t have expected the corona virus to trigger a sudden crash followed by a long-term spike either.“

In March 2020, Bitcoin had crashed by 50% within 48 hours, with other financial products doing similarly at the time. Subsequently, however, many well-known companies such as MicroStrategy and MassMutual had invested large sums in Bitcoin. MicroStrategy, led by CEO Michael Saylor, is betting particularly heavily on the cryptocurrency as protection against impending inflation. „The institutions are pursuing a long-term strategy and are not speculating,“ as Brown accordingly says.

However, as soon as companies need capital to stay afloat, this strategy can quickly change again

The situation could become particularly bad if institutions become insolvent, regardless of developments on the crypto market.

The fact that Bitcoin recently hit an astronomical record high of $41,000 inevitably means that companies are currently buying in at peak prices. So the risk involved is higher than usual. „This means that companies experiencing financial distress as the bitcoin price stagnates or falls would have to sell below their purchase price,“ as Brown concludes. To this he adds:

„While this is all very theoretical and unlikely, such a scenario could trigger a domino effect to the downside, quickly putting us back in the downtrend. We’ve always talked before about how big investors can move the market, but currently the amount available in circulation of the major cryptocurrencies is even more centralised than usual. So going forward, it may only take one really big sell-off from one of the big players to move the market significantly lower, which could possibly be even worse than during the 2018 slide.“

In 2018, the bitcoin price had crashed from US$17,000 down to just US$4,000.

Anyone who was awake last night saw the immense volatility of the Bitcoin price. Bitcoin worked its way towards the $ 40,000 mark for several hours and made the jump to around $ 40,200 around 7 p.m.

Crypto Twitter raged and tweeted tweet after tweet to celebrate the all-time high of over $ 40,000

A „monster candle“ followed a full two minutes later and the price fell to $ 36,500 within 45 minutes.

The mood turned quickly, exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance were briefly offline and the community was raging.

Some traders stressed that the dip should now be used and Bitcoin Lifestyle bought , while others posted pessimistic analysis. But what happened next made many bullish.

Buy the dip goes on

Around 8:45 p.m. it starts to look up again. It seems that there were enough buy orders to absorb the setback, even though Coinbase, Binance and other crypto exchanges were briefly down and users therefore did not have the opportunity to buy the dip.

Yesterday’s volatility showed how quickly the mood within the community can change. Big whales probably dumped the Bitcoin price and took advantage of the stop-loss orders and sales of the „little traders and weak hands“ to fill their own pockets with more Bitcoins. PlanB presented this appropriately in a tweet yesterday:

Yesterday’s campaign showed that it is important to use a crypto exchange that you can rely on and, in an „emergency“, deposit money within a few minutes in order to benefit from the volatility. Therefore, an exchange where you can buy Bitcoin with PayPal is of course an immense advantage.

• Bitcoin et l’ensemble du marché de la cryptographie ont été pris dans un intense mouvement de consolidation au cours de la dernière journée, qui a fait suite à un déclin important
• Ce déclin a fait baisser la plupart des jetons, la CTB et la plupart des pièces de monnaie ont perdu une grande partie de leur valeur
• Les tendances du marché à moyen terme devraient permettre de déterminer sérieusement si cette évolution est emblématique d’un changement de tendance à moyen terme
• Pour l’instant, il semble que la CTB verra d’autres inconvénients avant de trouver des soutiens et de se rallier à une position plus élevée
• Un opérateur en a parlé dans un récent tweet, notant qu’il s’attend à un mouvement vers la région des 17 000 dollars supérieurs à moyen terme

Bitcoin et le reste du marché de la cryptographie ont été pris dans les affres d’une intense crise de négociation ces derniers jours.

Le coup d’envoi a été donné lorsque Bitcoin est passé sous la barre des 19 000 dollars et a affiché une résolution baissière de ses transactions latérales.

La prochaine tendance du marché devrait dépendre en grande partie de sa réaction continue à quelques niveaux de prix clés qui existent entre 17 500 et 18 000 dollars.

S’il ne parvient pas à se maintenir au-dessus de cette zone de prix, cela signifie probablement qu’un changement de tendance est imminent et que les ours vont probablement reprendre le contrôle de son action sur les prix.

BITCOIN LUTTE POUR CONSERVER UN SOUTIEN CLÉ ALORS QUE LA PRESSION DE VENTE AUGMENTE

Au moment où nous écrivons ces lignes, Bitcoin Method est en baisse de près de 3 % à son prix actuel de 18 150 dollars. C’est à peu près le prix auquel il a été négocié ces derniers jours et semaines.

L’évolution à moyen terme dépendra sans aucun doute, au moins en partie, de l’arrivée ou non de capitaux sur le marché global.

Actuellement, le soutien à l’achat de la BTC et d’autres grands altcoins s’amenuise, ce qui indique qu’une baisse pourrait être imminente.

LA BTC DEVRAIT PLONGER EN DESSOUS DE 18 000 DOLLARS, CAR LA PRESSION DE VENTE AUGMENTE

Un trader a expliqué dans un récent tweet que Bitcoin se trouve actuellement dans une position quelque peu précaire et pourrait bientôt connaître une forte baisse alors que les taureaux luttent pour défendre 18 000 dollars.

Il envisage en particulier un déplacement vers la région des 17 000 dollars avant qu’elle ne trouve un soutien sérieux et ne rebondisse.

„Bitcoin : la première zone de soutien se situe autour de 17 600 à 17 800 dollars“, a-t-il déclaré en pointant le graphique ci-dessous.

Les prochaines tendances de Bitcoin devraient déterminer si l’ensemble du marché peut ou non se redresser dans les jours et les semaines à venir.

• Krypto-Händler und Investoren haben erwartet, dass Bitcoin auf $16.000 oder sogar $14.000 fallen wird
• Das soziale Volumen von Bitcoin ist nach wie vor hoch
• Der Angst- und Gier-Index liegt zum zweiten Mal in einer Woche bei 95
• Die Fundamentaldaten in der Kette sind jedoch nach wie vor stark, und eine Abschwächung könnte warten müssen.

Der wöchentliche Schlusskurs von Bitcoin ist wieder nur wenige Stunden entfernt, und viele BTC-Händler haben sich den Kopf darüber zerbrochen, ob der King of Crypto vor dem nächsten Anstieg eine Korrektur auf $16.000 oder $14.000 erfahren wird. Zum Zeitpunkt der Erstellung dieses Artikels hat Bitcoin (BTC) das Preisniveau von 19.000 $ zurückerobert und handelt bei 19.164 $.

Das soziale Volumen von Bitcoin ist weiterhin hoch

Nach Angaben des Teams von Santiment feed ist das soziale Volumen in Bezug auf Bitcoin (BTC) immer noch hoch, wobei die Euphorie noch keine Anzeichen eines Rückgangs zeigt. Das Team von Santiment teilte seine Beobachtungen in der folgenden Erklärung und der beigefügten Tabelle mit.

Dem sozialen Volumen und dem Verhältnis zwischen positiven und negativen Kommentaren von Bitcoin Superstar auf Twitter zufolge scheint die Euphorie etwas abgeflaut zu sein, da die Marktpreise bei früheren Versuchen knapp 20.000 $ erreichten. Aber immer noch mehr Optimismus als der normale ruhende Durchschnitt von $BTC.

Bitcoin’s Gier- und Angst-Index bei 95

Ein kurzer Blick auf den Angst- und Gier-Index zeigt, dass er diese Woche zum zweiten Mal einen Rekord von 95 erreicht hat. Der Angst- und Gier-Index lag am 1. Dezember ebenfalls bei 95 und als Bitcoin ein 2-Jahres-Hoch von 19.880 Dollar – Binance Rate – verzeichnete.

Der Dip von Bitcoin ist derzeit ein Wartespiel

Das hohe soziale Volumen und der Gier-Index von Bitcoin deuten natürlich auf eine Korrektur der BTC hin. Laut Bitcoin-Analyst Willy Woo gibt es jedoch keine bärischen Signale, die auf einen Rückgang hindeuten. Daher müssen Bären möglicherweise etwas länger warten, wie unten von Willy Woo erläutert

Bitcoin On-Chain-Struktur, die den Stieren sagt: „Du sollst nicht passieren“, nicht ohne ein Reset. Ein Reset bedeutet viele Wochen mit Seitwärtsbewegungen oder einem anständigen bärischen Einbruch. Werden wir einen Dip bekommen? Es gibt noch keinen Impuls von Münzbewegungen, der stark bearish ist. Wir warten auf das Spiel.

Bitcoin as world currency – Is „Hyperbitcoinization“ coming now?

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For Bitcoin maximumists, Hyperbitcoinization is the endgame. Only when BTC has completely displaced fiat money, one can speak of success, so the bullish attitude of the Bitcoiners. What you need to know about Hyperbitcoinization

„Bitcoin wins when all other currencies fail,“ writes Bitcoin influencer ObiWan Kenobit in his much-cited medium article „Hyperbitcoinization: Winner Takes All“. However, the term has existed since March 29, 2014, when Nakamoto Institute author Daniel Krawisz dealt with the phenomenon of the complete suppression of fiat money by the crypto-currency No. 1.

What does Hyperbitcoinization mean?

Since then, hyperbitcoinization has been understood as both a state and a process that works towards this state: Bitcoin as the dominant world currency. Typically, a distinction is made between different stages of this process. While Bitcoin Superstar is still in an early phase these days, authors such as Krawisz and Kenobit believe that at a certain point, things move very quickly. The recent Bull Run could indicate that Bitcoin is now moving into the next phase. Then, they say, the opportunity costs of BTC adaptation will be lower than its rejection. This is known as the tipping point. Of course, nobody really knows when this will happen.

This kind of argumentation is based on the consideration of the spread of exponential technologies like the Internet, telephone and computer.

Krawisz defined hyperbitcoinization at the time as „a voluntary transition from an inferior to a superior currency“ – and thus remained true to the spirit of digital gold. After all, it is precisely this voluntary nature of participation that distinguishes Bitcoin. No one is forced to use BTC, but anyone who wants to can do so.

The maximalists‘ argumentation goes something like this: There are no monopolists with a power overhang such as in the central banking system; rather, everyone has the same rights of participation, and so the transition from a fiat to a Bitcoin system is, so to speak, grassroots democratic.

So if Bitcoin wins, and hyperbitcoinization becomes a reality one day, it is simply because digital gold is the better currency. Kenobit therefore also speaks of an „organic and self-organizing process.

Hyperbitcoinization – A castle in the air?

Sure: Those who have invested in Bitcoin would like to see the astronomical rate of 100 million US dollars per BTC (the Kenobit estimate) for the „Orange Coin“. But at this early stage one should be cautious with such exorbitant price forecasts.

The arguments of the maximalists sound plausible. However, one cannot assume that the suppression of state money by Magic Internet Money will occur without frictional losses. After all, the money monopoly is one of the most important sources of state financing for governments – laws and taxes accordingly offer some protection against the demonetarization of fiat money.

And this is where it gets exciting: Satoshi Nakamoto has optimized Bitcoin for exactly this use case for this reason. Maximalists ascribe such great importance to the decentralization of BTC because state attacks are considered the most relevant attack vector against Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s resilience against coordinated attacks and prohibitionist efforts on the part of the state must remain absolutely guaranteed. Otherwise the experiment would fail before it has even begun properly.

In the history of digital gold, there has never been a serious government attack on system integrity. This shows that Bitcoin is still in a comparatively early phase.

Better that way. After all, it gives BTC more time to build a resilient infrastructure. Who knows, perhaps the No. 1 crypto currency is in fact that „cunning way“ the economist Hayek spoke of, by which we can wrest the money monopoly from states without them noticing.